Political Ad Spending Turns Focus to other 2024 Races with Presidential Rematch Set
With projected 2024 political ad spend estimates ranging from $10-$16 billion, Passwaiter notes that there's already big money having gone to Senate races, such as the $200 million spent in Ohio.
With Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump set to do battle again in November in 2024's biggest political contest, both parties' attention has turned to key Senate races in as many as 10 states, according to Steve Passwaiter, President of Washington, DC-based political advisory firm Silver Oak Political.
“When it comes to the U.S. Senate, Democrats are playing defense this year, while Republicans find themselves in an advantageous position to take control,” Passwaiter writes in a guest column for Ad Age. “The money is focused on those states where Democrats are supporting incumbent senators under pressure,” he says, citing such a situation in West Virginia, where either Republican Gov. Jim Justice or his primary opponent, Rep. Alex Mooney, are poised to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.
With projected 2024 political ad spend estimates ranging from $10-$16 billion, Passwaiter notes that there's already big money having gone to Senate races, such as the $200 million spent in Ohio on Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown and several Republican candidates. Much of the spend was driven by, Passwaiter says, “a raucous Republican primary [during which] Democrats actually ran ads in [its] closing days boosting Trump-backed Bernie Moreno, who they believe is less electable than more moderate alternatives. It was really a match between Ohio’s Republican establishment and Trump.” With another round of political ads ready to go as Moreno is now set to face Brown in the Senate showdown, Passwaiter asks, “Will Ohio voters split their tickets to keep Brown in the Senate?”
Montana's Senate contest between Democratic incumbent John Tester and former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy is likely to be most expensive in the state's history, with $120 million already committed to political ads, says Passwaiter. “Expect a full array of advertisers attempting to convince voters to retain Tester or replace him with Sheehy,” he says, noting that campaign spend could pass the near-$150 million on the state's 2020 Senate contest between then-Sen. Steve Daines and Gov. Steve Bullock.
Aside from Senate races in Florida and Texas, where respective incumbents Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are, Passwaiter says, “thought to be somewhat vulnerable, but both seats are rated as 'likely Republican',” contests in five of the eight states Democrats have focused on for Biden's campaign. Those are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, each of which may also see big spending on the Senate side.
Arizona's election to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Krysten Sinema pits Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego against 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, while Michigan's Senate race between Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, Passwaiter says, “may be impacted by factors outside Slotkin’s control as the war between Israel and Hamas continues. The discontent in Michigan’s sizable Arab American community is a variable that could cost both President Biden and Slotkin if those voters decide to stay home on Election Day.”
With regard to the Presidential race, Passwaiter points out that Trump is at a “distinct disadvantage” compared to Biden, who has “nine figures of cash on hand,” noting that FF PAC, a Democratic Super PAC, leads all spenders with $150 million targeting the aforementioned five states along with Georgia, North Carolina, and Nebraska.
The inclusion of Nebraska is “due to the way [it] divides its electoral votes,” Passwaiter says. “Using the congressional district method, it allocates two electoral votes to the state’s popular vote winner, and then one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of three districts. Democrats plan to compete aggressively, believing they can provide the President with a big electoral vote in a close election.”
Key Energy Issues in 2024 Election
LNG Exports - A new Trump presidency would likely swiftly end a temporary pause on new LNG export permits that U.S. President Joe Biden implemented this year pending a review of their environmental and economic impacts. The United States became the world’s top exporter of the supercooled gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led U.S. allies to seek alternatives to Russian natural gas, a boon for gas developers.
Methane Fees - A Trump White House would likely attempt to scrap an incoming rule from the Environmental Protection Agency to charge the oil and gas industry a $900-$1500 per ton fee for methane emissions. The measure was adopted as a way to reduce emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas, but faces stiff resistance from drillers and pipeline companies concerned it will hurt their bottom line.
Less Regulation, More Drilling - A second Trump administration would likely redo the U.S. Interior Department’s five-year offshore oil and gas leasing programto expand the size and scope of drilling auctions. Biden’s administration drew up the existing plan with a record low number of auctions, as part of its broader efforts to “usher in a transition to cleaner energy sources”.
Paris Agreement - Trump’s campaign has promised to once again pull the United States out of an international pact to combat climate change. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Deal during his first term, but Biden quickly reversed the move after he was elected.
EV Mandates - A new Trump presidency would likely direct the Environmental Protection Agency to revisit vehicle efficiency standards that are designed to push automakers to transition more quickly to producing battery-powered cars and trucks this decade.
Inflation Reduction Climate Action Tax Breaks - Conservative thinktanks Heritage Foundation and the America First Policy Institute are also looking at ways Trump could scrap the tax breaks in Biden’s roughly $400 billion climate legislation, the IRA, so the money could be used for other purposes like funding extensions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which is set to expire in 2025. But getting this done will depend on whether Republicans control both the House and Senate after November’s elections, and whether they are willing to do away with subsidies that are mostly benefiting Republican states.
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